Thursday, September 4, 2014

Essay: Summer Movies at the Box Office

IS IT POSSIBLE TO KNOW HOW TO “WIN” THE SUMMER?
by Maxwell Meyers
Above: The premiere of "Guardians of the Galaxy," the highest-grossing movie of summer 2014
Every year, when the world starts cooling down, movie pundits start asking who won the summer.  What does this mean, you might ask?  Well, I'll tell you.  Each year, studio executives schedule release dates for movies based on when certain kinds of films are likely to sell tickets.  Usually, you can count on October, November, and December being reserved for Oscar gold-seekers (case in point: best picture winners like “The Artist,” “Argo,” and “12 Years a Slave”), but the summer months are a different story.  Summer is for the blockbusters—crowd-pleasing movies like “Transformers” that attempt to appeal to as many people as possible.  

But is it possible to predict where on the release schedule that the iron is hot?  Does it matter?  When are the summer months?  Don't I have better things to do with my time?

Let's take this one question at a time (the last one is easy, yes.  But this is interesting, so just stay with me). 

If you ask most people on the street what the summer months are, they would tell you that they’re June, July, and August.  Yet in the case of films, Hollywood has decided that summer actually starts in May, usually with a Marvel movie, or sometimes a new Pixar opus. In essence, studios consider May to be a wading period to dish out films that mentally prepare you for the movies coming in the hotter months.   Just look at Sony’s “The Amazing Spider-Man 2”—not only was it the first high-profile film of this summer, but it also tried to prime audiences for the months ahead by featuring previews for would-be blockbusters like “The Expendables 3” and “22 Jump Street” (for bonus points, “Spider-Man” included a mid-credits teaser for “X-Men: Days of Future Past”).

All this is, of course, was an attempt by the studios to make sure you became a returning customer.  But winning the summer depends on more than audience interest—it depends on when a movie is released.  And while some might be skeptical of this concept, the numbers may surprise you.  According to boxofficemojo.com, an average of thirty-three films are released each June—four of which typically wind up in the top twenty-five highest-grossing films of the year.  And for studios looking to win the entire kitchen caboodle, July is even hotter.  Films released during that month not only have an eighty-seven percent chance of being in the top twenty-five, but becoming the highest-grossing film of the year as well.

By contrast, picking the wrong month can doom a movie to financial failure.  There has never, for instance, been an August movie that has become the highest-grossing movie in a given year.  The irony?   That on average, forty movies are released in August each year.  Despite the threat of oversaturation in the market, studios keep betting they can score the next off-season hit (in the vein of “Guardians of Galaxy,” which was a critical and commercial blockbuster in August of this year).

But what does this all mean?  Do any of these financial statistics matter?   That depends on the movie you are releasing and whether or not you are an executive at Warner Bros.  But as a consumer, it's hard to say we truly lose.  In the scramble to score prime release dates, studios have been pumping out hundreds of movies, meaning that there are now more choices for everyone.  The only problem is that with not enough time or money on hand, it seems the hardest choice is choosing a move to see on a Friday night.

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