Box Office Analysis

Summer Box Office Predictions!

by Bennett Campbell Ferguson J

Above: With an appearance in “The Wolverine,” Logan could be a summer superhero

Every year, millions of Americans spend their waking hours predicting the outcomes of the Superbowl, the World Series, and the Masters Golf Tournament.  But there is another group of pop culture seers in the midst who merit attention—those who vainly attempt to predict the box office grosses of major Hollywood films.  I must confess, dear friends, that I am one of them.

            This, I freely admit, is a rather frivolous pursuit.  After all, does the amount of money earned by a film indicate how satisfying it is to watch?  Hardly.  “Skyfall,” for instance, may have made more money than “Drive,” but there’s no doubt in my mind about which I would rather watch.  “Drive” is a far better and more poetic film, one whose uniqueness of style will make it far more influential than the collected works of 007 in the years to come (no offense, Mr. Bond).

            Nevertheless, I’ve always been fascinated by box office statistics.  It is always interesting to speculate why one movie sells more tickets than another.  What, for instance, made “42” such a massive hit last April?  There have been plenty of inspirational sports films that tried and failed to connect with audiences.  What made this one different?  Was it word of mouth?  Strong reviews?  Sophisticated marketing?  Something else?  The answers to such questions are always elusive and surprising.

            It is because these questions lead to unpredictable answers that make predicting box office statistics such a ridiculous practice.  And yet it remains irresistible.  On that note, I present to you my financial forecast for summer 2013.  It may come from a man who has already underestimated the appeal of gold titanium alloy and F. Scott Fitzgerald, but being right is hardly the point.  The real thrill is in wondering about what will happen next.

 

MOVIE	DOMESTIC OPENING WEEKEND  (In millions)	DOMESTIC ESTIMATED FINAL GROSS (In millions)
“After Earth”	$50	$140
“The Internship”	$30	$150
“Man of Steel”	$80	$230
“Monsters University”	$60	$200
“The Heat”	$50	$150
“White House Down”	$40	$140
“Despicable Me 2”	$80	$250
“Grown Ups 2”	$50	$110
“Pacific Rim”	$40	$180
“Turbo”	$20	$100
“The Wolverine”	$60	$190
“The Smurfs 2”	$50	$150
“2 Guns”	$30	$150
“Elysium”	$40	$160
“The Lone Ranger”	$70	$200
“Planes”	$20	$100

 

Potential Indie Hits: “Blue Jasmine,” “I’m So Excited,” and “Austenland”

Movies That Will Likely Bomb (Unless They Are Moved to Fall or 2014): “Kick-Ass 2,” “300: Rise of an Empire,” “RIPD,” “RED 2,” “The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones,” and “Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters” (although I intend to see that one!)

And now…let the games begin!